Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.097331 0.111192 0.126250 0.143815 0.163730 0.185601 0.211434
2026-01-18 0.078646 0.097261 0.119048 0.146395 0.179768 0.219140 0.269088
2026-01-25 0.060889 0.081059 0.106353 0.140323 0.184673 0.240531 0.316149
2026-02-01 0.046890 0.066970 0.093861 0.132367 0.185944 0.257692 0.360908
2026-02-08 0.037425 0.057157 0.085281 0.128073 0.191291 0.280968 0.417517
2026-02-15 0.029976 0.048817 0.077322 0.123273 0.195132 0.302762 0.475650
2026-02-22 0.025699 0.044462 0.074482 0.125566 0.209802 0.342500 0.566472
2026-03-01 0.020976 0.038491 0.068081 0.121140 0.213221 0.365486 0.634965
2026-03-08 0.017417 0.033812 0.062986 0.117971 0.218130 0.391515 0.712388
2026-03-15 0.014571 0.029861 0.058455 0.114972 0.222782 0.417700 0.794001
2026-03-22 0.012959 0.027937 0.057277 0.117897 0.238589 0.465746 0.921732
2026-03-29 0.011224 0.025426 0.054533 0.117319 0.247619 0.502576 1.033990
2026-04-05 0.009847 0.023452 0.052637 0.118381 0.260618 0.549958 1.176110
2026-04-12 0.008765 0.021913 0.051388 0.120621 0.276517 0.605675 1.344034
2026-04-19 0.007329 0.019249 0.047192 0.115661 0.276184 0.628042 1.446278
2026-04-26 0.006040 0.016656 0.042668 0.109116 0.271198 0.639750 1.527533
2026-05-03 0.005135 0.014841 0.039648 0.105593 0.272633 0.665928 1.645482
2026-05-10 0.004354 0.013176 0.036681 0.101640 0.272353 0.688154 1.757881
2026-05-17 0.003945 0.012461 0.036034 0.103566 0.287156 0.748459 1.971042
2026-05-24 0.003374 0.011135 0.033483 0.099908 0.286860 0.771771 2.096424
2026-05-31 0.002923 0.010069 0.031447 0.097291 0.288901 0.801314 2.242371
2026-06-07 0.002542 0.009129 0.029584 0.094811 0.290896 0.831058 2.393535
2026-06-14 0.002348 0.008765 0.029381 0.097246 0.307400 0.902157 2.667161